Decision-makers, especially those in business, should take a considered view of recent reporting on the slowdown of the growth of the HispanicLatino population.  Changes in population by their very nature alter the composition of the marketplace, but the formation of new markets and a work force that is more HispanicLatino remains fairly on course.

Much is being made of the slowdown in the HispanicLatino birthrate since 2007.  As the Great Recession took hold, it dampened the disposition of HispanicLatinos to add to their families.  Coupled with the dramatic increases in deportation of individuals in the country illegally and increased border security to prevent their return, the lower birth rate is causing some observers to move quickly to ratchet down estimates of the size of the HispanicLatino population going forward.

It would be advisable to remember that in every national census since 1980, the numerical size of the HispanicLatino population as projected by the Census Bureau has surprised those who made the predictions.  In 1990, in 2000 and again in 2010, the final HispanicLatino number came in higher than expected though an economy in recession and other factors have caused HispanicLatino birth rates to decline.

Hispanic birth rates fell almost 18 percent between 2007 and 2010 from 97.4 births per 1,000 women ages 15 to 44 to about 80.  The birth rate for the non-Hispanic white population also fell but only by about 4 percent to about 59 per 1,000 women.  Yet the difference between 80 and 59 is enormous in demographic terms.  The inherent forces redefining the composition of the national population remain very much in place – which is a blessing for the country.  Indeed, there has never been a decisive moment in its history when the flow and the impact of immigrants on the growth of the national population has stopped.

The more important reality is that the contracting Anglo population is also changing regional markets – and creating new ones in their place.  The ability to generate and create value and worth and to increase of purchasing power of these new markets are by far more important than their immediate size, which will again grow over time if and when the economy improves again – requiring more workers in an aging country.

The lack of jobs in the economy here and better economies at home apparently have caused foreign workers to decide not to journey northward and thereby add to the total HispanicLatino population.  Yet the absence of plentiful jobs pulling workers from the south must be balanced against the metastasizing drug crisis in Mexico that is pushing a different kind of individual to take their place.  Anecdotal evidence suggests that a new kind of emigrant population is forming, perhaps not at the levels witnessed during the Mexican Revolution but present nonetheless.

The increasing consumption of illicit drugs in the United States will have to be considered in the demographic formulas that drive population projections.  The more drugs Americans consume, the more Mexicans fearing for their well-being will emigrate as the power of the drug cartels grows.

The new numbers that attempt to define the future size and shape of the HispanicLatino population are not wrong.  But they present a picture of the immediate past, and probably not of the immediate future.

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