This Time is not an Act

So I was sitting with a HispanicLatino executive in the movie business in Los Angeles recently.  The views expressed on the Obama Administration’s handling of immigration did not surprise me.  The ferocity of the comments did.  They were not part of the usual script.  The conversation in Hollywood confirmed what I have been thinking for many months:  That unlike other national elections in which immigration is important then tends to fall by the wayside, this one is shaping up differently.

From a number of perspectives, the power of the issue is real – real enough to tip what looks like a close election in the making.  It is certainly real for a significant number of HispanicLatinos.  How many?  In a close election, 500 votes can be significant.  Had only 1,000 more HispanicLatinos voted in Florida in 2000.

Angered by the Obama Administration’s failure to achieve immigration reform (read that some sort of legalization program) and by the number of deportations that by November of next year will number by far more than a million, many HispanicLatinos are ready to hold back on President Obama’s re-election.  How many?  As I said…

The predicament the Administration finds itself in is delicate, and any attempt to triangulate the issue Clinton-style is nearly impossible.  No amount of pitting sides against each other while appearing to be the good guy is going to reduce the intensity of a substantial number of HispanicLatinos on the issue.  How many?  As I said…

A growing number of HispanicLatinos dogging Obama on immigration know that attacks on immigrants – whether legal or not – are attacks on them.  As silent as the HispanicLatino population often appears, most are quite aware of the intimidation and harassment – and intentions – of racist bullies in Alabama and Arizona and elsewhere.  Many HispanicLatinos would think that perhaps a black President and African Americans on his staff would understand.

Usually immigration has lost its currency as an issue by the time of the national election.  But this time, a credible part of the HispanicLatino community is intent on keeping it alive in the closing stages of the general election that could force it to gain traction among non-HispanicLatinos.  This is a worst-case scenario for Obama.  Thus another attempt is being made – at least for show – by congressional Democrats to achieve “immigration reform” whose failure they hope to pin, deservedly, on Republican members.  But all is not as it appears.

GOP strategists know full well that the demise of any reform legislation will only fuel the issue among HispanicLatinos.  Losing on immigration for them might well mean winning in November – not in the classic sense of HispanicLatinos not voting for them but through enough HispanicLatinos not voting at all, while keeping the issue alive among anti-immigrant voters.

It seems the die is cast on immigration:  Any semblance of “immigration reform” in Congress would enflame the issue from the start.  On the other hand, the ongoing deportation of individuals and rising anti-HispanicLatino rhetoric have created a sensation within parts of the HispanicLatino community that portend more conflict with the administration than it realizes going into November.

Immigration and the election appear headed to the final act as thriller and nightmare – for a million and more reasons.

Blogs published Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays or invariably in between.

 

From Castro to Rubio: The Attack of the Birthers

So what to make of Marco Rubio’s problem.  First, to his defense:  Some reason other than respect for the Constitution must motivate the attack of the birthers who believe he is not eligible to be vice president.  They think that Rubio’s parents being born in Cuba disqualifies the Republican U.S. senator from Florida from being nominated by his party.  But, of course, anyone born in the country can run for office – any office.

The trouble brewing for Rubio is not the whacko crowd.  Yet even someone already being compared to Ronald Reagan can have an issue or two, and one of Rubio’s is that he misstated when his parents emigrated from Cuba.  It seems that he has wanted people to believe that they were part of the exiles who fled communism and Fidel Castro, who took power in 1959 – except that his parents had left in 1956, when Fidel was in Mexico in exile reorganizing and trying to find support for his revolution.

The facts do not add up for Marco.  But they do add up rather nicely for others, some of whom could easily be found in the Democratic White House or in the camps of some of his Republican rivals.  They know that Rubio is running for vice president.  Anyone who does not believe it does not know how this works, despite his denials as late as this week.

For the White House and his rivals, Marco Rubio would be a nightmare.  For President Obama, the Republican spin machine is capable of convincing enough HispanicLatinos that the GOP better suits their interests – enough to tip Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada and Virginia and perhaps New Jersey but certainly Florida.  For Rubio’s potential rivals for the vice presidency within the party, they already face GOP strategists who want to balance their party’s anti-immigration and anti-HispanicLatino rhetoric with a telegenic HispanicLatino on the ticket who is the son of immigrant parents.

The odds for Rubio’s selection most likely are tied to how the economy performs.  If it, as expected, does not improve by late next year and Obama’s standing in the polls remains wretched, Rubio’s chances diminish.  But if Obama is within striking distance and the GOP senses that Democrats have done a good job organizing the HispanicLatino infrastructure, Rubio will be on the ticket.  It is an ironic paradox.   The more effective Democrats are at organizing the HispanicLatino vote, the greater the chance that the GOP will choose Rubio.

So it is to the White House’s advantage to cripple Rubio now.  Other parties interested in waylaying Rubio easily could be supporters of Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan.  After lightning struck Sarah Palin in 2008, the list of would-be GOP vice presidential hopefuls could run into the dozens.  Thus the fight is on, and Rubio’s current problems are significant – because he has significant opponents.

Rubio’s supporters have their work cut out for them and they should invest some time and energy to see if any former Presidents or Vice Presidents had parents born outside the United States.

After that, they can start to figure out how these many years later they can corral enough voters of Mexican descent who make up almost 65 percent of the HispanicLatino population to support his revolutionary candidacy.

Note:  Next week, a more detailed essay on the 2012 election will be available on this website.

Blogs published Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays or invariably in between.