No Newt is a Good Newt

A cardinal rule in politics holds that you cannot beat somebody with nobody.  Another rule becomes operational when the first rule is violated:  Political animals roam the landscape in search of a political void.  Another reality is that journalism is not dead – meaning no one should crown Newt Gingrich just yet.

Regarding the first rule, the Republicans have nobody.  In this landscape, Newt Gingrich could gain momentum and become the Republican nominee.  More likely, it has to be someone else, either now or later, but how?

Many of the likely participants in the Iowa caucuses are still undecided and New Hampshire might fill in the void with someone else – perhaps through a write-in candidate.  It happened in New Hampshire in 1964 — which is why in today’s environment, the broadside launched by the non-candidate governor of New Jersey, Chris Christie, against President Obama three weeks ago should be viewed in the context that in an explosive political year, nothing is off the table.

In powerful, every-day-every-person kind of language after the congressional super committee failed to inject some fiscal sanity in the federal budget, Christie did not hold back.  “Then, what the hell are we paying you for?” he bellowed at Obama in the kind of language in which Republicans in Iowa but certainly New Hampshire can revel.

The point is that the race is unsettled.  Though the polls indicate Gingrich will win Iowa and is gaining ground in New Hampshire, serious journalistic institutions like The New York Times have yet to weigh in fully with more information on who Gingrich really is – an electoral nobody.

The eventual GOP nominee in 1964, Barry Goldwater, was also an electoral nobody who led the party to massive defeat.  The Republican spectacle unfolding in debate after debate – topped off by what promises to be a whopper when Donald Trump gets into the act with a debate on Dec. 27 – will cause more Republicans to realize they have to do something to prevent a debacle.

But by itself this cavalcade of clowns yet could stumble into the Republican convention in the dog days of August and produce a deadlocked convention – and an opportunity for Republicans to turn around their sinking ship.

The new America – youths, HispanicLatinos, blacks, single parents, women and gays and lesbians still nervous about theological wing nuts legislating on everyone’s personal lives – rejected the Republican ticket in 2008 by near-landslide proportions.  Except for a new crop of usually non-participating voters who went to the polls to vote against him, Obama would have pushed past 400 electoral votes.

Ironically, the GOP has enough names – Christie, Marco Rubio, Mitch Daniels and others – to combine into a ticket to try to make sure 2012 does not turn into a dog of an election for them.  But before all that, as much as Gingrich’s fortunes are soaring, so are the people willing to take a bite out of him.

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